Every coach wants a number to hold a pitcher to. Here are the ones I use, and why I don't lean on them too hard.
The rules of thumb
- Youth, roughly 12 and under: 55 to 60 percent strikes.
- High school: 60 to 65 percent.
- College: 65 percent and up.
These are rules of thumb, not standards. Nobody publishes an official chart, and the number moves with how you count. In a bullpen chart, a strike is usually a pitch in the zone. In a game, swings and foul balls count as strikes too, so a pitcher's game strike percentage runs higher than the in-zone rate from the same pitcher's pens. Compare pens to pens and games to games.
Count the same way every time
Pick one definition and stick to it. If a pitch clips the edge, decide now whether it is a strike, and have every coach who charts use the same call. If one coach counts edges and another doesn't, the pitcher's number moves five points depending on who held the phone, and the trend stops meaning anything.
One more number is worth watching next to the total: first-pitch strikes. A pitcher who gets ahead 0-1 changes every at-bat, and it is often the first thing to improve when a young pitcher starts to trust the fastball.
Why the trend matters more
A 14-year-old at 54% who was at 46% a month ago is doing better than a 14-year-old stuck at 58%. The first kid is learning. The second has stalled, and you need to find out why.
Compare a pitcher to their own numbers first. Look at the last four weeks, not the last pen. A single pen can swing ten points on nothing: a short night of sleep, a cold day, a new catcher. Four weeks of pens smooths that out and shows you the direction.
That is also how to talk to a pitcher about it. "You were at 52 in August and you're at 59 now" lands better than "you need to be at 62."
What moves the number
- Pens that run too long. If the back half of every pen drags the total down, shorten the pen before you blame the pitcher.
- Missing to one side. Most misses go one way. Fix the miss and the percentage follows.
- One pitch pulling down the rest. Split it by pitch type. A 70% fastball and a 35% curveball average out to a number that describes neither.
Softball
The same approach works for softball pitchers: chart every pen, split by pitch, and watch the four-week trend. The ranges above come from baseball, so set your own baseline from your staff's first month of charts.
Putting it to use
Chart every bullpen, then look at each pitcher's four-week trend before you look at anyone's raw number. If you want the full routine, start with how to chart a bullpen. Keep an eye on workload while you do it; the pitch count calculator gives the rest days for any age.
To see what this looks like across a whole program, open the sample program: every pitcher's 30-day strike percentage, the trend against the month before, and who needs a look.